Buyers often treat comparable sales like a simple average — pull three nearby sale prices, do the math, offer that number. It’s a reasonable instinct, but it skips most of what actually makes comps useful.
Recency matters more than proximity
A sale from eight months ago, even three doors down, tells you less than a sale from three weeks ago half a mile away. Markets shift, and the most recent comparable data is almost always more predictive than the closest one geographically. If your agent is only handing you old comps, ask for newer ones.
Condition adjustments are where the real work happens
Two homes with the same square footage can be genuinely different purchases if one has an updated kitchen and the other doesn’t. A good comp analysis adjusts for these differences rather than treating every three-bedroom, two-bath home on the street as interchangeable. This is the part that’s hardest to do well from a spreadsheet alone — it takes someone who’s actually seen both properties.
Under-contract data is more useful than you’d think
Closed sales are the gold standard, but homes currently under contract (even before their final price is public) tell you something about current buyer behavior that a three-month-old closed sale can’t. A good agent tracks this actively, not just what’s already recorded.
What this means for your offer
The goal isn’t to find the lowest defensible number — it’s to find the number that reflects what the home is actually worth in the current market, supported by real data, so your offer gets taken seriously without leaving money on the table. Lowball offers based on outdated or poorly adjusted comps rarely work, and they can cost you the house entirely in a competitive situation.
The honest answer
There’s no formula that replaces someone who knows the specific streets you’re looking at. Comps are the evidence; interpreting them well is the actual skill.
If you’re getting ready to make an offer and want a real comp analysis instead of a guess, get in touch before you submit anything.
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